Covid-19 Archive

Daily Newsletter Thursday 28th May 2020


When I look back at previous newsletters from weeks ago, one thing jumps out about the way in which this epidemic has been tracked. The quality and timeliness of the data released has been consistently poor. It is something that needs investigation at a later date to understand the root causes. I talked recently about the 5:2 pattern in the graph of daily deaths, but then failed to spot the 4:3 pattern near VE day. This was, of course, caused by late reporting on the bank holiday Friday, as well as over that weekend. The bank holiday weekend just gone showed a similar pattern. It is very hard to manage a situation well if your data is consistently late being reported.

Since I have been tracking infections in local areas, two things have jumped out. Firstly in Northamptonshire there is a lag of up to 10 days before some specimens show up in reports. This must be an administrative problem. Secondly in Bedford we have twice had the data revised downwards. How is this possible? Bedford is clearly a local hot spot and health managers there need to be on top of the data to ensure that they are making the correct decisions.

With the UK Track and Trace system starting today, we will see an increase in the numbers of reported infections. But here more than ever, the accuracy and speed of reporting are critical, especially as lock down restrictions are lifted. A delay of even one day in a case being tested and reported, will have a huge impact on the transmission rates. This must be a 24/7 tightly managed operation, virus transmission will not respect the weekends.


None that we know of.


412 deaths were reported by the Government yesterday taking us to 37,460 across the UK. The number of new lab confirmed cases increased to 2,013. Clearly I spoke too soon. The low figures over the last three days were an artefact and reflected poor reporting. This is unacceptable.


In Northamptonshire another 8 cases were reported yesterday with the specimen dates being spread back over the last few days. The total number of cases is now 1,443.

2 new infections were reported in East Northamptonshire yesterday. But look at Bedford!

Local Authority Cases per 100,000 population Daily increase
Bedford 635 370.0 14
Kettering 232 229.1 1
Northampton 479 212.8 3
East Northamptonshire 189 201.3 2
Wellingborough 156 196.3 0
Corby 123 173.7 0

Daily links (all verified):

Daily Podcast
Daily newsletter
Thy Kingdom Come

Parish History
Puzzle Library
Making masks from socks
(click not now when it asks you to sign up to FaceBook)

Advice on breathing with Covid-19 Symptoms
Vulnerable Household registration
Northamptonshire County Council Support Line Call 0300 126 1000 and select Option 5 (Monday to Friday, 8am to 6pm)
Longhurst Housing Association Support Line Call 0300 123 1745
Village support line Call 07850 570007 in the first instance and Iíll find you help
ASDA Volunteer Card
Covid-19 Symptom Tracker
Live UK Covid-19 Tracker
(Public Health England)
Parish Council Walking Leaflet

And finally . . .

The kids don't really want to be on the beaches anyway ...

Stay Alert, Control the Virus, Save Lives